Fijian economy forecast to grow by 3.8%, an upward revision from the 2.8% earlier projected - Ali

The Fijian economy is now forecast to grow by 3.8 percent in 2024, an upward revision from the 2.8 percent projected in June this year.

Chair of the Macroeconomic Committee, Ariff Ali says underpinning the higher growth is the better-than-expected outturn in visitor arrivals, which grew by 6.3 percent in the year to September, almost twice the projected increase in arrivals, consumption spending has gathered pace, supported by higher incomes and remittances, tourism-driven demand, higher Government spending and the pickup in new lending.

Ali says investment activity continues to progress but at a slower than desired pace.

He says while labour shortages and ease of doing business processes are gradually improving, investors still face a relatively higher-cost environment, impacting both the completion of existing and commencement of new projects.

Economic growth for 2025 has now been upgraded to 3.4 percent from the 3.0 percent expected earlier.

The service and-related sectors remain the main contributors to growth, followed by industrial and primary sectors.

While natural disasters, elevated geopolitical tensions and further slowdown in trading partner economies pose downside risks; higher tourist arrivals from Dallas and new flight routes, pickup in sectoral production and greater stability in the business environment post-budget, as highlighted in the August 2024 Business Expectations Survey, could weigh positively on growth.

Ali says complementing the outcome are the expected slowdown in resident departures amid tighter immigration policies in source countries and productivity gains from imported labour.

In 2026 and 2027, economic growth is forecast to be 2.9 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, with the economy reverting to its long-term growth rates.

The Committee also notes that based on the GDP report by the Fiji Bureau of Statistics.

The report indicates that outcomes in thirteen sectors are still below pre-pandemic levels as of 2023, which the Committee projects to note a gradual return over the near term.

On the positive side, eight sectors and the overall economy has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels in 2023.

Ali says although there are symptoms of improvement, we must remain agile to create an economic terrain to foster sustainable economic growth.