Dutton is unlikely to read from Trump's playbook as the election nears

The cameo role US President Donald Trump may play in our imminent election campaign, both rhetorically and practically, is the election wildcard that no-one can predict — and it is making political hardheads increasingly nervous.

First there's the unpredictability of Trump himself — will he insert himself into our election campaign and freestyle about "radical left" governments after being, potentially, drawn in by leading and loaded questions framed by somebody like, say, Nigel Farage? It's not hard to see it happening. While Albanese government ministers have been impressively disciplined in their language about the new Trump regime — avoiding any baiting to criticise — any expectation that this protocol will be reciprocated is naive.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton said last week that there was "no doubt" in his mind that he would have a better relationship with the new US president than the current Labor government. Dutton said Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had "obvious" philosophical differences with Trump that put him at odds of having an effective and productive relationship.

Dutton is clearly and undeniably more profoundly aligned with Trump, from his anti-woke rhetoric to his harder line on immigration levels, there are philosophical synergies that he can no doubt amplify. But it is fanciful to believe that Australian voters, who have consistently in surveys expressed concerns about the rise of Donald Trump and Trumpism, will be motivated to vote for Dutton on the basis that he might — on partisan lines and philosophy — get along with Trump better than our current PM.

Dutton may want to use some of Trump's populist strategies, but any suggestion he will cut and paste the entire Trump playbook here is wrong. That became even clearer over the past week.

That's not to say that the Coalition isn't emboldened by what is a rolled gold backlash to progressive language and causes — but there is selective picking and choosing going on to create a distinctly Australian flavour that meets the expectations of our electorate where compulsory voting still plays a moderating role on what people are inclined to care about.

Dutton diverges from the Trump agenda There are two key moments that demonstrate that difference.

Peter Dutton shut down his Nationals counterpart's suggestion that Australia should "lean into" the gender debate, after Trump's executive order rejecting recognition of transgender people in the United States.

David Littleproud, leader of the Nationals, said Australia must also consider the issue of gender in light of Trump's move, declaring there were only two recognised genders under the "biological reality of sex".

"We just need to take a deep breath on this, it doesn't need to get emotional. We just need to understand it also comes back to respect, it comes back to respecting that biological basis that we can't get away from when we're born," Littleproud said.

"I think we can do that in a sensible way without vitriol, without upsetting anyone, but just respecting there are some changes I think in our society that we need to lean into."

But Dutton had something very different to offer: "Australia is a sovereign nation, and as prime minister I'll act in our country's best interests, and I'll make decisions that I think are in the best interests of all Australians," he said.

"We don't have any plans to change our position in relation to that issue."

Dutton also signalled a Coalition government would not follow Trump in withdrawing Australia from the Paris Climate Accords, despite yet again, internal pressure to do so. Dutton has argued Australia would be damaged economically, including through the imposition of tariffs by the Europeans and other nations by withdrawing from the Paris accord.

Complex political battles lie ahead Dutton's path to victory is complicated without winning back at least some of the seats his party lost under former prime minister Scott Morrison to what have now become Independent teal MPs. For some time there has been a view that perhaps teal MPs will have a harder path to re-election without the visceral electoral backlash to Scott Morrison.

There was a specific loathing of Morrison in the leafy parts of Australia that was central to the campaign strategy in those seats. Expect to see the fear of Trump and the idea that Dutton will be Trump-lite being used to activate voters.

Already Climate 200, which provides funds to Teal MPs to run their campaigns, has been using Trump's brand to fundraise.

Calling for donations on their website they promise to use the money to "Trump-Proof" Australian politics.

"Dutton may have the support of fossil fuel billionaire Gina Rinehart, who partied election night away with Trump at Mar-a-lago, but independents have you" they say. "Every pro-climate community independent who sits on the crossbench is a crucial line of defence against Dutton's Trump-inspired agenda".

Not so subtle, but will it work?

The teals will zero in on fear of Trump — of which there is plenty in parts of Australia that are motivated by issues like climate change — but Labor is in a bind here.

How can they warn of Dutton's "Trumpism" and at the same time ingratiate themselves with the Trump administration?

Trumpism is no longer to be used as a derogatory term by the government like it has been by some in the past — those days are over — Trump's ascendancy has rewritten the politics. And there are parts of Trump's America First rhetoric that, despite Australians' overall distaste for Trump himself, do and will resonate here.

Director of Redbridge Group Kos Samaras told this column that the same culture wars don't translate in Australia, and Dutton has been selective about what he will lean into. "Australia is a much less religious country than the US. A lot of what is common public political discourse in that country on gender and fertility are seen by the majority of Australians as deeply private matters".

The Australia Day booby trap Dutton is so far more strategic in when and how he uses issues that fit in the culture war space — but there was some evidence last week that the issues he does favour talking about — including the debate around the date of Australia Day — are being deftly avoided by the Labor Party.

There is no doubt that Australia Day — the date and flag — have become polarising issues in Australia and the defeat of the Voice and backlash against issues pertaining to the Indigenous rights agenda have swung in favour of the arguments Dutton has long been making.

But Albanese can see a booby trap a mile off and believes that debates around the date of Australia Day suck oxygen out of a government that wants to exclusively be talking about cost of living and getting Australians ahead.

Albanese poked fun at Dutton for having a fight with an imaginary friend when it comes to the annual Australia Day debate. Responding to a question about polling from the Nine papers that showed the majority of Australians do not support changing the date of Australia Day, Albanese said he was focused on the fullness and richness of the country's history.

Asked if he supported Dutton's call to boycott pubs that refuse to celebrate Australia Day, the prime minister used the strategy if poking fun at the opposition leader.

"I sometimes think that Peter Dutton every year has a fight with an imaginary friend over something that most Australians are just getting on with, Australia Day," he said. "And one of the things that Australia Day celebrates is the fact that we're not a Soviet-style command system. You know, like, just chill out! Get on with life."

A senior Labor powerbroker told me he believed Dutton would try to goad Labor into talking about issues outside of cost of living, which Australians clearly care most about and then accuse Labor of being obsessed with those other issues.

They say they are on high alert and will vigorously avoid being tricked into anything out of step with the main game — people's economic interests.

Dutton on the other hand knows that Australia isn't interested in being a mini-America and you will hear the word "sovereignty" from him to send the signal that he is not interested in replicating a carbon copy of the Trump agenda in Australia. That's not to say that he won't try to exploit a broader political vibe that is favouring politicians on the right — but just how and when he does is worth careful observation.

Over the weekend Dutton announced his new frontbench. The reshuffle included a new "government efficiency" portfolio to crack down on "wasteful spending" including the "divisive Voice referendum". The current shadow minister for Indigenous Australians, Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, will be its spokesperson in a move which has eerie similarities to the new US Department of Government Efficiency (Doge), led by Elon Musk.

Is this a new-found obsession for the Coalition? Not really, when former prime minister Tony Abbott was first elected there was also a focus on government efficiencies

But what matters now is timing. Dutton has made the calculation that a frustration with "Canberra" and waste is good politics. It could be — but it also risks the mother of all scare campaigns from Labor that it's a plan for slashing and burning.

Patricia Karvelas is presenter of Q+A on Monday nights on ABC TV, host of ABC News Afternoon Briefing at 4pm weekdays on ABC News channel co-host of the weekly Party Room podcast with Fran Kelly and host of politics and news podcast Politics Now.