Down the rabbit hole

Suva’s elite have been consumed in recent weeks not by “saving the nation” but tied up in the current Commission of Inquiry into the appointment of Barbara Malimali. It would seem there are a few in Government who haven’t either given evidence or waiting to appear or wondering when a subpoena will be served.

We exaggerate of course, but not by a lot! What first appeared as a simple exercise…. to examine whether Ms Malimali had been correctly appointed …. appears to have gone down a rabbit hole into the strange world of Fiji’s prolific internet conspiracy theorists who have been gifted a platform to parade their various theories and paranoias that include some wild stories about various members of cabinet.

This explains the continual requests for extensions and the bewildering list of political, legal, and other luminaries appearing before the Commission. Now we must add that YB cannot state with any certainty what is being said behind the closed doors of the COI but not much is secret in Suva. This leads to several burning questions. Why did the government open the Inquiry in the first place? They could have challenged any who queried the legality of the decision to take it to court.

Next…how and why have they allowed this to spin so dramatically out of control. COI Chair David Ashton Lewis is a longtime legal advisor to the Prime Minister and so he presumably expected a “safe pair of hands” as they say in cricket. Allowing these conspiracy theories to be displayed “on the record” potentially adds to their credibility in the eyes of the voter. Noting that while the proceedings are private, they will form some kind of public report.

On the other hand, maybe, there is a hope that in critically and publicly examining these theories they will be discredited along with those who have had such a wonderful time promoting them on social media. That is quite a gamble that could backfire badly.

With each extension, the daily fees of those running the investigation accumulate and there are growing concerns as to what the final bill for this exercise will be. Some are suggesting several million dollars. At the end of all of this no matter the outcome it does raise issues, once again, over competent judgement especially in this highly sensitive area. Ms Malimali was always going to be a controversial appointment surely at some point someone, presumably the Prime Minister, needed to stand back and say do we really need the distraction. What is particularly disturbing is that this isn’t a “one off case” and they all link back to the same source?????

Let us return to the topic of the 2026 election and just where everyone sits mid-term. Last week we looked at what the Government and more specifically the Prime Minister needed to deliver if they were going to return to power. In the coming weeks we will come back to some of these themes but let’s look at the potential challenges to the Coalition Government.

Remember any challenger needs to have the “brand power” to stand out in an open list electoral system. You also need to look at this from an ethnic perspective as well. It would be nice to think Fiji has moved on but that is just not the case.

Voting booth analysis indicated that in the 2022 elections iTaukei in the Central, Eastern and Northern divisions voted overwhelmingly for People’s Alliance the exceptions being certain sections of the disciplined forces. In the West, as was the case in the previous elections, the iTaukei vote leaned to the FijiFirst. Indo Fijians overwhelmingly voted for FijiFirst. NFP picked up a mix of urban voters who just wanted to see FF gone while SODELPA benefitted from past loyalty and a small group of anti-Rabuka iTaukei voters.

We have generalised wildly here, but it provides us with a useful way of trying to figure out how an alternative party might challenge the People’s Alliance. With population trends continuing to show an increasing iTaukei voter base, any real challenger must first appeal to the iTaukei voter.

The next question is where the Indo Fijian vote will go in the absence of FijiFirst. Our bet right now is that the bulk won’t vote at all. NFP obviously hopes that they will return “home” and while there will be some who are attracted back right now, YB suspects the longstanding dislike of Rabuka will continue to prevent a mass switch.

This leads us to the current sixteen members of the opposition who have recently announced they will form a new party. With all due respect to Inia Seruiratu, who has his strengths, none of the current opposition parliamentarians have the “star power” to deliver government. Also, they don’t look particularly united and appear split between those who want to move on from Bainimarama/Khaiyum and those hoping by some miracle they might reemerge.

This leaves the smaller parties and the possibility of a “star” emerging from the wilderness. Try as he might, and you must admire his tenacity, Mahendra Chaudry’s days are over and the longer he remains at the head of the Fiji Labour Party the more difficult it will be for FLP to build a base. As for Savenaca Narube, well he just doesn’t have IT.

Could a new figure emerge? It would be tough but possible, social media provides an opportunity to quickly develop a “brand” while the leadership space is very crowded already, a younger charismatic social media savvy leader could emerge either through current political parties or via something new. Possible …. Yes, but not likely.