Australia beat Afghanistan by four runs in the Men's T20 World Cup but failed to achieve the net run-rate swing required to further boost their chances.
If England beats Sri Lanka by any margin tonight, they will progress at the hosts' expense.
If Sri Lanka win, Australia will join New Zealand in progressing from Group 1 to the last four.
Australia needed a big victory in Adelaide to pile the pressure on England but could not break free with the bat as they were restricted to 168-8.
They had to keep Afghanistan below 119 to have a chance of pipping England on net run-rate.
David Warner gave Australia a fast start with 28 but the regular loss of wickets checked the scoring, Maxwell top-scoring with 54 not out from 32 balls.
Credit should also go to an excellent Afghanistan bowling performance, with Naveen-ul-Haq closing out the innings brilliantly and taking 2-20.
Afghanistan reached 98-2 after 13 overs of their chase before three wickets in four balls - a brilliant Glenn Maxwell run-out and two for spinner Adam Zampa - swung the game back towards Australia.
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