Be prepared for extreme changes to the weather pattern with predictions of a Super El Nino.
The Fiji Meteorological Service says they are aware of the recent statement by the UN warning of an imminent return of El Niño later this year and Fiji’s state of preparedness for extreme weather conditions.
They say at this stage, international climate centres indicate that the tropical Pacific is warming, and El Niño is likely to develop during the coming months and may persist towards the end of the year.
However, Fiji Met says it is still too early to confirm whether this will become a severe El Niño event, or whether the impacts on Fiji will be as strong as some online reports are suggesting.
They say some forecasts are expressed using the Northern Hemisphere winter period, but El Niño itself is a tropical Pacific climate driver and can influence weather patterns across many regions, including Fiji.
For Fiji, El Niño events are often linked to normal to below-normal rainfall, increased risk of dry spells, warmer conditions and possible pressure on water availability, especially in the drier parts of the country.
However, local weather systems can still bring periods of rain, heavy showers or thunderstorms even during El Niño periods.
Fiji is encouraged to use these updates for early planning, particularly around water management, heat-related preparedness, landscaping, outdoor activities and contingency planning during possible dry periods.
Fiji Met says at this stage, the message is to remain prepared, but not be alarmed.
The CNN reports that El Niño has officially begun, and it is forecast to intensify into a very strong or “Super” El Niño with major shifts in global weather patterns and an even hotter climate, according to a new report released from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the US.
El Niño is a periodic weather pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that alters winds and features unusually hot waters in the central and eastern Pacific.
These changes in winds and ocean temperatures have knock-on effects on weather patterns worldwide.
The CNN says for it to be considered a Super El Niño, tropical Pacific water temperatures must be more than 2 degrees above average.
Some reliable computer models suggest that bar will be greatly exceeded.
For the past few months, large volumes of unusually hot water have been sloshing from the western Pacific to the eastern tropical Pacific, forced by shifting winds.
This unusually hot water has travelled about 600 to 1,000 feet beneath the ocean surface and is beginning to rise to the sea surface thousands of miles to the east, closer to South America.
El Niño tilts the odds in favour of certain weather and climate extremes, including flooding and droughts, depending on the location.
