Global temperature rise is set to cross 1.5°C, likely within the next few years, pushing climate risks and impacts to increasingly dangerous heights, but it is still possible to bring temperatures down and achieve global goals in the Paris Agreement, according to a new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report.
The report, Limiting Overshoot, identifies an ‘overshoot, peak, and decline’ pathway as the best remaining option to minimize the magnitude and duration of this overshoot and try to return to below 1.5°C as soon as possible.
UN Secretary-General Antőnio Guterres says this summer’s scorching heat, raging wildfires and deadly floods are a warning of what lies ahead.
He says we must make the overshoot above 1.5 degrees as small and short as possible and that demands an overshoot of ambition.
Guterres says this pathway would minimize peak temperature rise through immediate and sustained cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, including methane, on the road to net-zero, and bring down temperatures through long-term net-negative emissions, with carefully governed Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) – the process of removing carbon from the air and storing it through afforestation or other means – an essential part of the mix.
He adds that at the same time, following this pathway would involve adaptation actions that reduce vulnerability to the current, expected and unexpected impacts of climate change on societies, communities and economies – although there will likely be limits to adaptation and irreversible impacts, especially if peak temperatures are not minimized.
The report stresses such a pathway would reduce risks and impacts, make adaptation less difficult and expensive, and increase the chances of lowering temperatures.
Executive Director of UNEP Inger Andersen says there are no good outcomes if we remain above 1.5°C.
She says across the globe, extreme heatwaves are already proving that climate impacts will strike faster, hit harder, and last longer - costing more lives and causing deeper disruption.
Andersen says now is the time we must double down on climate action and we can and must get on the right path.
She says by cutting greenhouse gas emissions, strengthening resilience and adaptation, and ensuring exceedance of 1.5°C is as small and short as possible.
This report is a reminder that an overshoot, peak and decline pathway is a next generation climate frontier, but one which cannot be left unattended to for the next generation to tackle.
Immediate action is required for such a pathway to remain possible.
Source: United Nations Environment Programme
