In recent years, both The Power of the Dog and La La Land seemed to have it in the bag, but both of them were beaten. All the same, it would be a major upset if Oppenheimer wasn't named best picture this year.
It's a film with a heavyweight subject and a stellar cast, but it's also technically dazzling.
Christopher Nolan's biopic of J Robert Oppenheimer is far more intricate than the average Hollywood "based on a true story" drama.
There are also the little matters of how phenomenally successful it's been at the global box office, how thoroughly it has dominated awards season, and how commandingly it leads the field in terms of Oscar nominations – 13 in total.
Nicholas Barber says he can't honestly say that Oppenheimer is my his favourite of the best picture contenders, but it would (and will) be a worthy winner.
When the best picture category expanded from five to 10 nominated films in 2009, the change was spurred by backlash to the way Christopher Nolan's blockbuster The Dark Knight was snubbed the previous year.
Now it's full-circle time. Nolan's explosive yet character-driven epic Oppenheimer, with a perfect balance of art and commerce, is poised to win best picture.
Caryn James says killers of the Flower Moon and Poor Things are also great in their different ways, but Oppenheimer's ambition and invention make it, deservedly, this year's best.
Mika
Source: BBC news
