Fiji's public debt is expected to reach around $11.4 billion, equivalent to about 81 percent of GDP by the end of this year, while inflation is projected to exceed 6 percent.
This was highlighted by Dialogue Fiji Executive Director Nilesh Lal during the opening of the State of the Fijian Economy Dialogue 2026.
Lal says the government's own economic assessments and the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF)report show that growth prospects have softened, consumer spending is weakening, business confidence has declined, labour shortages remain severe and inflationary pressures are increasing.
He says the government's pre-election economic and fiscal update warns that public debt is expected to rise significantly while the economy faces slowing growth and rising costs.
Lal says these indicators help explain why many Fijian families are struggling with the cost of living, businesses are facing higher operating costs and skilled workers continue to leave the country in search of opportunities overseas.
He says while much of the national conversation has focused on politics, governance issues and social controversies, major economic challenges have continued to build in the background.
Insert:Lal on IMF 9th June
He also says elevated public debt is constraining fiscal policy space, limiting the government’s ability to respond to future economic shocks.
Lal stresses that the dialogue is intended to encourage an honest discussion on Fiji's economic future rather than support or criticise any government.
Meanwhile, IMF Regional Representative for Pacific Islands Dr Giovanni Ganelli says Fiji's economy remained resilient in 2025, supported by tourism, external demand and government spending.
However, he says economic growth is expected to slow to 2.4 percent in 2026 from 3.2 percent last year, while inflation is projected to rise to 3.8 percent.
Ganelli says softer tourism demand, global uncertainty and higher oil prices linked to conflict in the Middle East are expected to affect Fiji's economic outlook.
He adds that the IMF outlook is based on a reference scenario assuming a relatively short-lived conflict and oil prices around US$80 per barrel, but warns that a prolonged conflict could further weaken global growth and affect Fiji through tourism, trade and transport channels.
He adds that Fiji continues to face challenges including labour shortages, infrastructure gaps, outward migration and vulnerability to natural disasters.
Ganelli says investment in infrastructure, climate resilience, skills development and productivity reforms will be important if Fiji is to achieve its goal of becoming a high-income country by 2050.
Meanwhile, Dialogue Fiji Chairman Nemani Buresova says the next two days will provide an opportunity for stakeholders to engage in a timely and important national conversation on the state of Fiji's economy.
He says Dr Ganelli's insights into the global and regional economic landscape, as well as Fiji's economic outlook, have provided a valuable foundation for discussions over the next two days.
